All classes Claude from Zero to Expert Syllabus · Episode 49 of 100

Claude from Zero to Expert Class #49: Simple Scenarios and Estimates

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Learn to build simple scenarios and estimates with Claude: estimates versus predictions, stating assumptions clearly, building a scenario calculator as an Artifact, comparing optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenarios, calculating the break-even point, and estimating stock needs. Example: Sunset Coffee weighs a price increase for its cup coffee. Episode 49 of 100, Session 10: Data Analysis.

Software: Claude
Level: Intermediate
Duration: ± 8 min
Series total: 15 h 1 min · 100 videos
Published: October 28, 2026

Episode 49 of 100 · view syllabus

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Transcript

The full narration of this video. The current sentence is highlighted while the video plays; click any sentence to jump there.

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Introduction

Hi, welcome back to the data analysis session. So far we've analyzed what already happened. Today we look ahead. We'll make estimates with clear assumptions, build a scenario calculator as an Artifact, compare scenarios from optimistic to pessimistic, and find the safe limits of a decision.

Step 1: Estimates, not predictions

Laras is weighing a decision. Ingredient prices have gone up, and she wants to raise the price of the iced coffee cup from eighteen thousand to twenty thousand rupiah. But she's worried customers will leave. Nobody can be sure what will happen, including Claude. What we can do is make an estimate: if the assumptions are like this, the result will be roughly like that. What's the difference between a prediction and an estimate? A prediction says: sales will definitely drop ten percent. An estimate says: if sales drop five to twenty-five percent, profit changes by this much. A prediction is based on feelings or beliefs. An estimate is based on clearly stated assumptions, so other people can check them. A prediction gives one number. An estimate gives a range, from a bad scenario to a good one. And if reality turns out differently, the prediction is seen as a failure, while the estimate simply gets its assumptions updated. That's why estimates are far more useful for a business. Scenarios work for any decision that involves numbers. Laras wants to know how big a drop in buyers is still safe if she raises the price. Dewi wants to know how many reams of paper to prepare for the busy month. Mr. Hendra wants to open a new class at Cerdas Tutoring, and needs to know the minimum number of students so the class doesn't lose money. Nadia wants to raise the rates for her social media services, and needs to know how many clients she has to keep. All these questions are answered the same way: assumptions, scenarios, and safe limits.

Step 2: Stating assumptions clearly

Every estimate stands on assumptions. Laras writes them down one by one. The first assumption: cup sales in October were six hundred twenty cups. This comes from the data we cleaned. Second, the cost per cup is nine thousand rupiah, from Laras's ingredient purchase records. This number is an example; only you know your business's costs. Third, the new price is twenty thousand. This is the decision being tested. Fourth, a drop in sales of five to twenty-five percent. Notice the label: it's a guess, with no data yet. Guessed assumptions like this are the ones that most need testing with scenarios. Those assumptions go into the prompt. The context is the price increase decision. The data is October's sales and the cost per cup, noting that the cost is Laras's own estimate. The task is to calculate gross profit for three sales-drop scenarios, plus the break-even point. Gross profit here means the price minus the ingredient cost, not counting rent and salaries. The format asks for the assumptions to be written first, and an Artifact calculator with inputs that can be changed. With changeable inputs, Laras can try other numbers without asking again.

Step 3: A scenario calculator as an Artifact

Laras asks Claude to build the scenario calculator. Claude writes out its assumptions first, including the gross profit formula: price minus cost, times the quantity sold. The calculator appears in the right panel, with input fields you can change. Laras tries a scenario with a ten percent drop. The result: five hundred fifty-eight cups sold, and gross profit actually rises from five point five eight million to six point one four million rupiah. Because this calculator is an Artifact, Laras can open it any time and change the numbers herself. For example, if palm sugar prices rise and the cost per cup becomes ten thousand. Before you trust it, check one result by hand. Current gross profit: eighteen thousand minus nine thousand, times six hundred twenty. That makes five million five hundred eighty thousand. It matches. A ten percent drop: six hundred twenty times zero point nine makes five hundred fifty-eight cups. It matches. New profit: eleven thousand times five hundred fifty-eight makes six million one hundred thirty-eight thousand. It matches. The formula is right, so this calculator can be used for other numbers.

Step 4: Three scenarios and break-even

Now let's look at all the scenarios at once. Laras asks for a table of the three scenarios and the break-even point. The table is clear. The optimistic and realistic scenarios give more profit than now. Only the pessimistic scenario, a twenty-five percent drop, makes profit smaller. Then the most useful number: the break-even point. Sales can drop by up to about eighteen percent, or at least five hundred eight cups a month, before gross profit falls below today's. Laras also tries changing the cost to ten thousand in the calculator. The break-even point shifts, but the conclusion is the same: the price increase is still safe as long as the drop in buyers isn't too big. The break-even point turns a scary question into an easier one. It's no longer will customers leave, but will the drop be more than eighteen percent? In quantity, Sunset Coffee needs to sell at least five hundred eight cups a month. Or roughly seventeen cups a day. A daily number like this is easy for Dimas to track at the register every afternoon. If the average over the first two weeks is above seventeen, the price increase is on a safe track. Scenarios also help lower risk. First, test it for two weeks and track the daily number before making it permanent. Second, explain the reason to customers honestly: ingredient prices have risen, and quality is still maintained. Claude can help write the announcement. Third, offer a budget option, such as a two-cup bundle or the liter size, so price-sensitive customers don't leave right away.

Step 5: Estimates for the office and their limits

The same pattern is useful in the office. Dewi wants to estimate A4 paper stock for next month, which falls at the start of the new school year. She gives the orders from the last three months. Claude writes out its assumptions: a three-month average, a ten percent buffer, and one thing it doesn't know yet, the seasonal increase. Claude doesn't guess; it asks for last year's data instead. Dewi answers: last year, the same month was twenty-five percent above average. The estimate is updated to about five hundred sixty-seven reams. Claude even reminds her about the orders from the schools Dewi is approaching. All the numbers here are examples. Finally, the limits and how to use estimates. First, all assumptions are written down and marked with their source, data or guess. Second, it's always a range, from a bad scenario to a good one, not a single number. Third, there's a number to track that's easy to check every day or week, such as seventeen cups a day. Fourth, compare it with reality, then update the assumptions. After a month, Laras will have real data on how customers react to the new price. What you must not do: trust an estimate blindly as a certainty. Claude helps you calculate quickly and neatly, but the future is still full of surprises.

Done!

We've told predictions from estimates, written assumptions, built a scenario calculator, compared three scenarios, found the break-even point, and estimated office stock. In the next episode, everything we've learned in this session comes together: a monthly report ready to send, from raw data all the way to the email. See you there!

Practice exercises

Try these on your own after watching to lock in what you learned.

Write three assumptions for one of your decisions, then mark which are based on data and which are guesses
Ask Claude to build a scenario calculator with inputs you can change
Find the break-even point: how big a drop or rise is still safe for your business

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Memuat

Claude from Zero to Expert Class #49: Simple Scenarios and Estimates

0 views

Software

Claude

Level

Intermediate

Duration

± 8 min

Series total

15 h 1 min · 100 videos

Published

October 28, 2026

Episode 49 of 100 · view syllabus

▶ Watch the video lesson0 plays

Transcript

The full narration of this video. The current sentence is highlighted while the video plays; click any sentence to jump there.

Show transcript

Introduction

Step 1: Estimates, not predictions

Step 2: Stating assumptions clearly

Step 3: A scenario calculator as an Artifact

Step 4: Three scenarios and break-even

Step 5: Estimates for the office and their limits

Done!

Practice exercises

Try these on your own after watching to lock in what you learned.

Write three assumptions for one of your decisions, then mark which are based on data and which are guesses

Ask Claude to build a scenario calculator with inputs you can change

Find the break-even point: how big a drop or rise is still safe for your business

Your instructor

Cerdas Inovasi Digital Team

Software developers, BIM & 3D engineers, and AI practitioners

53 video classes1,296 episodes

See our clients →

Recommended classes for you

Need more than a video?

Transcript

0:03Introduction

0:21Step 1: Estimates, not predictions

1:58Step 2: Stating assumptions clearly

3:15Step 3: A scenario calculator as an Artifact

4:31Step 4: Three scenarios and break-even

6:11Step 5: Estimates for the office and their limits

7:36Done!

Practice exercises

Ask the class material

My notes

Questions & answers

Your instructor

Recommended classes for you

Need more than a video?

Transcript

0:03Introduction

0:21Step 1: Estimates, not predictions

1:58Step 2: Stating assumptions clearly

3:15Step 3: A scenario calculator as an Artifact

4:31Step 4: Three scenarios and break-even

6:11Step 5: Estimates for the office and their limits

7:36Done!

Practice exercises

Ask the class material

My notes

Questions & answers

Your instructor

Introduction

Step 1: Estimates, not predictions

Step 2: Stating assumptions clearly

Step 3: A scenario calculator as an Artifact

Step 4: Three scenarios and break-even

Step 5: Estimates for the office and their limits

Done!

Introduction

Step 1: Estimates, not predictions

Step 2: Stating assumptions clearly

Step 3: A scenario calculator as an Artifact

Step 4: Three scenarios and break-even

Step 5: Estimates for the office and their limits

Done!